Early warning: spotting at-risk businesses before they decide to leave
Updated
Business retention risk is easiest to manage when the warning signs are recorded and reviewed early. This guide covers early warning for at-risk businesses in economic development: what the red, yellow, green and info flags mean in BRE Pulse, and why a named person confirms every adverse flag before it becomes the record.
The principle behind it: collecting business information is where most systems stop. Here it has to lead somewhere, to an organized response, accountable follow-through and evidence of results.
Red, yellow, green and info: what each means
Deterministic rules read the latest facts and propose flags with evidence and a confidence.
- Red: relocation, closure, a serious unresolved permit or zoning problem, or a critical utility constraint.
- Yellow: a lease ending, succession, contraction, a workforce need, process friction, a strategic business with a large information gap, or a stale case.
- Green: expansion, hiring, capital investment or a site search.
- Info: context worth keeping that needs no action.
Why a person confirms every adverse flag
Red and yellow flags are proposed until a named person confirms them. An adverse pulse for a business is likewise proposed and becomes the record only on confirmation. Confirmation, dismissal with a reason, and resolution are audited. That keeps a judgment about a business with a person who knows the business.
From flag to case
A confirmed flag becomes a case in one click. Cases carry the business need, the government need, jobs and investment by stage, agencies, owners and due dates. Government commitments carry an owner and a due date, and overdue commitments are escalated. Read how follow-through works.
Ranking the work by what is at stake
There is no single priority score that always sends attention to the largest taxpayer. Retention risk, growth opportunity, support need, actionability, coverage and data confidence are kept as separate dimensions, and small-business coverage is reported on its own. A six-person company with a solvable barrier can outrank a 700-person company with no active need.
Where the evidence comes from
Every material fact stores its value, source, observed date, recorded date, confidence, verification status and who verified it. Confidence follows the source: business-submitted and staff-verified facts are high, uploads medium, and self-added businesses low until verified. A differing value from a new source never silently overwrites a verified or equally confident fact; it becomes a conflict for a person to decide.
The 30/60/90-day plan
The rolling 30/60/90-day plan regenerates nightly from open flags, cases, gaps and commitments, and never duplicates an action. A flag that is confirmed and assigned shows up in the plan, so it does not wait for the next meeting to be noticed. Government commitments carry an owner and a due date, and overdue commitments are escalated, which keeps the follow-through on a risk visible until it is resolved.
What the flags are, and are not
Flags are proposals built from the facts on record. They are operational indicators, and no estimate is presented as a verified fact. Each one shows its evidence, so the person reviewing it can see what was recorded and judge it for themselves. Zoning, planning and legal questions get preliminary analysis only, never an official determination.
Keep the facts fresh
Warning signs only help when the facts behind them are current. Each field has a review window, with active issues and risks reviewed every 14 to 30 days, and stale facts are listed so they can be refreshed. A business chooses who may see its check-in, and individual answers are never published, which is part of why businesses speak openly. Visits are where most signs surface; see business visitation program software. To see flags on sample data, see BRE in action.
Frequently asked questions
- What does a red flag mean in BRE Pulse?
- Relocation, closure, a serious unresolved permit or zoning problem, or a critical utility constraint. Red flags are proposed with evidence until a named person confirms them.
- Can a flag be raised against a business without a person reviewing it?
- No. Red and yellow flags are proposed until a named person confirms them, and confirmation, dismissal and resolution are audited.
- Does the largest employer always get the most attention?
- No. Risk, opportunity, support need, actionability, coverage and data confidence are kept as separate dimensions, so a small business with a solvable barrier can outrank a large one with no active need.
Related
See BRE Pulse working
Walk through a demonstration township with your own questions: the business records, a visit, the follow-up list and a board report.
